Walk into a busy phone shop along Kampala Road or in Wandegeya, and the conversation often starts the same way. A customer asks for a Tecno Spark or an Infinix model they remember seeing months earlier. The seller checks the current price list and shakes his head. “That one moved up. The new stock is coming in higher.”
These are not small changes. Dealers report that many popular models have already risen by UGX 150,000 to 600,000. New arrivals of Samsung, Xiaomi, Tecno and Infinix phones are commonly landing at prices 10 to 20 percent higher than those of similar devices earlier in the year. Used phones have followed the same path, as fewer people sell their old devices and more buyers turn to the second-hand market.
The memory problem that started far away
The largest reason is global. Artificial intelligence companies are building enormous data centres that need huge quantities of memory chips—the components inside every phone that store photos, messages, apps and system files. Because these companies are buying so much memory, supplies for ordinary smartphones have tightened sharply.
Memory prices more than doubled between late 2025 and early 2026, then climbed another 80 to 90 percent in the following quarter. Phone makers have little room to absorb these increases, so they raise retail prices. Across Africa, the average selling price of a smartphone rose by about 25 percent in the space of a year, reaching roughly $202 by mid-2026. Globally, existing phone prices have climbed around 15 percent so far this year, while many new models are arriving at prices about 25 percent higher than those of their predecessors.
The effect is strongest on cheaper phones. In Africa, roughly four out of every five smartphones sold cost under $200, and a large share of those are priced below $100. For the cheapest devices, memory can makeup more than half the cost of building the phone. When that component becomes expensive, the whole handset does too. Shipments of sub-$100 phones have fallen sharply, leaving fewer affordable options on shelves.
Local costs that add up quickly
Even before global chip prices rose, Ugandan buyers were already paying a premium. The shilling has weakened significantly against the dollar, recently trading near or above UGX 4,000 and about 20 percent lower than a year earlier. Most phones are imported and invoiced in dollars. A weaker shilling means importers need more local currency to purchase the same device, and that extra cost is passed on to shops and eventually to customers.
Shipping has become slower and costlier as well. Many electronics arrive through Middle East hubs such as Dubai. Disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran have lengthened transit times—sometimes from one or two weeks to four or six weeks—and raised air and sea freight rates. When containers are delayed and stocks run thin, sellers have less incentive to offer discounts.
Taxes remain another fixed burden. Uganda continues to apply import duty and 18 percent VAT on smartphones, resulting in an effective tax burden that dealers and regulators describe as high compared with some neighbouring countries. The Uganda Communications Commission and industry groups have pushed for relief on entry-level phones precisely because the combined cost keeps basic smartphones out of reach for many households. High taxes also encourage smuggling, creating further unevenness in the market.
How ordinary buyers are adjusting
For most people, a smartphone is a working tool. It is how market vendors receive payments, how students submit assignments, and how families stay in touch. When prices rise, upgrades are postponed. Someone who planned to replace a phone with a cracked screen or a lagging battery now waits. Others settle for a lower-specification phone than they originally wanted.
The pressure is especially clear for lower-income buyers. Entry-level phones already consume a large share of monthly income for many households in the region, and further price increases make the gap wider. Dealers say more customers now walk in with a fixed budget and leave without buying, or spend extra time comparing shops in the hope of finding older stock at yesterday’s price.
