Total Revenue-Earning Customers (REC)/mobile subscriptions dropped from 28.4 million at the end of March 2020 to 25.5 million at the end of June 2020, according to the second quarter 2020 UCC report.
The 11% customer dip is the first recorded market reduction in the last two years (8
quarters).
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The drop in mobile subscribers has been attributed to several factors peak of which is the suppressed new demand because of the national COVID 19 lockdown that preceded the quarter and its subsequent effects on spending patterns.
Retail store closures across the country that prevented the onboarding of new customers to mobile networks.
There was also a clean-up of the subscriber register by one of the leading mobile cellular providers that rid the register of SMS-receiving only SIMs.
Seasonal inactivity of SIMs previously owned by December holidaymakers and travelers who usually leave the country in the first quarter of the year.
There was also a reported 13% global reduction in shipments of smartphones resulting in disruption of domestic supply chains.
The commission believes the above factors led to the 2.9 million drop inactive subscriptions. This situation is not peculiar to Uganda but has been experienced in other global markets following extended national lockdowns. Chinese mobile carriers, for example, lost a reported 15 million users between December and March 2020.
Based on the 2020 population estimates of 41.5 million, national teledensity now stands at 61% has dropped from 67% at the end of March 2020.
Work from home effects
The biggest network developments in the quarter were largely network optimization efforts by the local MNOs in response to traffic migration from the Central Business District (CBD) to the city outskirts. Traffic migration was largely the result of the adoption of Work-From-Home protocols across many businesses.
Furthermore, residential broadband demand experienced new surges resulting from new demand for online streaming services.
While in developed markets the Work-From-Home protocols resulted in a shift cellular to fixed internet solutions, the same cannot be said for Uganda because mobile cellular solutions account for more than 95% of the broadband access network.
International traffic
The period 2Q20 posted 190 million minutes of total international traffic. Yet again, Uganda remains a net traffic receiver with total incoming traffic accounting for 66% of total international voice traffic.
In terms of quarter-on-quarter performance, the segment posted a 2% dip in international traffic. The dip in traffic may yet again be due to disruptions in global supply chains experienced during the period. At a personal consumer level, international voice traffic demand may also have migrated to online calling and messaging services such as Zoom, Skype, WhatsApp, etc.
Worth noting is the fact that while total international outgoing traffic shrunk by 11 million minutes in the quarter, total international incoming traffic grew by 8 million during the same period.
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