The 2024 U.S. presidential election is set to be a pivotal moment for the global technology industry, with significant implications across various sectors.
As tech leaders prepare for the potential outcomes, they are particularly concerned about how the election results will influence regulations, investment strategies, and global competitiveness.
Regulatory landscape
The outcome of the election will likely shape the regulatory environment for technology companies in critical areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), data privacy, and antitrust laws.
A recent survey conducted by Ernst & Young (EY) revealed that 74% of tech industry leaders believe the election results will significantly impact the U.S. tech sector’s ability to remain competitive globally over the next two to four years.
With AI playing an increasingly central role in business operations, tech leaders anticipate that regulatory frameworks surrounding AI will be heavily influenced by the election outcome. Companies are planning to increase AI investments by 50% or more in the coming year, but they express concerns that progress may depend on who occupies the White House.
The survey also highlighted that cybersecurity and data protection regulations are expected to evolve based on the election results. Leaders are keenly aware that different administrations may prioritize varying levels of oversight and compliance requirements, which could either facilitate or hinder innovation.
Immigration policies
Another crucial area of concern is immigration policy, particularly regarding skilled labor crucial for tech innovation.
The current climate has seen high denial rates for H-1B visas, which many tech companies rely on to attract top talent from abroad. According to GlobalData, if Republicans maintain control, these denial rates are likely to persist, potentially stifling innovation.
Conversely, a Democratic administration might introduce more favorable immigration policies while implementing safeguards that prevent a return to pre-2016 levels of immigration. This shift could provide a much-needed influx of skilled workers essential for driving technological advancements.
Trade relations and supply chains
The election outcome will also have ramifications for U.S.-China trade relations, which directly affect global technology supply chains. Regardless of which party wins, there is a consensus that pressure against Chinese vendors will continue.
However, a Republican administration might lead to more permanent changes in supply chains due to heightened tensions, while a Democratic administration could foster a more normalized trade environment.
Antitrust actions
The approach toward antitrust actions against major tech firms like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple (collectively known as GAFA) is expected to differ significantly between parties.
A Republican-led government may focus on perceived censorship issues on social media platforms, while Democrats are likely to push for stricter antitrust measures aimed at curbing the market power of these giants. This divergence in focus could lead to varying levels of scrutiny and regulation affecting how these companies operate domestically and internationally.
Investment trends
As the tech sector braces for potential shifts in policy and regulation, many companies are doubling down on their investments in AI and other emerging technologies. The EY survey found that 87% of technology leaders plan to increase their AI investments, with key areas including hiring specialized talent and enhancing cybersecurity measures.
Despite uncertainties surrounding regulatory changes post-election, industry leaders remain optimistic about growth prospects in 2025. James Brundage from EY noted that companies are focusing on raising capital for growth initiatives and emerging technologies like AI amidst a sluggish tech market in 2024.
