In Uganda, 2019 will probably be remembered as the year government got serious and unveiled plans to streamline the telecom sector with a new licensing framework that will see some changes in the future when it comes mobile connectivity. Globally, 5G has finally become a reality, going from a few initial test networks to reach millions of users in dozens of markets worldwide. So what can we expect from the next generation, in 2020? We’ve had a look into our crystal ball to bring you our top predictions for the coming year.
3G will continue to be more popular than 4G in 2020
Yes, really! A lot of data shows that global user base, more people have never connected to 4G and instead rely on 3G. In Uganda, this is mainly because more poeple own 3G capable phones due to affordability even those who have 4G capable devices are limited by network coverage. There is no doubt that mobile network companies will continue to invest more in broadband mobile networks like 4G.
Globally, a few people don’t connect to 4G networks, and 5G adoption is moving too slowly to overtake 3G adoption in just one year. Gartner forecasts the revenue communication service providers (CSPs) — i.e operators — gain from 3G will be greater than from 5G in 2020.
No 5G network will be rolled out
Rolling out a new mobile network like 5G should not be in sight here in Uganda. It took Orange Uganda to roll out the first successful 4G- LTE network in Kampala around one year after 4G was global. Also it cannot be justified as of now, so we are like to see trials in 2021.
The 5G experience will depend on the type of spectrum used. We already see notable differences in mobile network experience on 4G in Uganda, dependent on the bandwidth used and the type of 4G. (TDD Vs FDD) Consumers connecting to 5G on low-band spectrum — like 600 MHz or 700 MHz — will not have a dramatically better experience than 4G, but consumers will still see 5G in their phone’s status bar. Those using mmWave will see extremely fast speeds, but very little coverage. Those using mid-band spectrum will see higher speeds than 4G and wider coverage than mmWave. But all kinds of network experience will be called 5G.
Less investment in 2G
The Government is pushing carriers to phase out 2G networks. Recently the government has set up minimum mobile internet speeds for telecom firms in Uganda and also announced that 2G mobile networks should be phased out in favor for newer and more efficient 3G and 4G-LTE networks. This means telecoms will invest less in 2G and starting 2020.
Spectrum availability will have a huge impact on the 5G trial experience
For networks that will have 5G trials, they will have some spectrum issues. We saw these spectrum issues happen with 4G-LTE roll out between Smile Communications and Orange Uganda (before it was acquired by Africell). The frequencies used for 4G can have a strong impact on the mobile network experience.
The majority of early 5G launches have utilized mid-band spectrum, in the 2 – 4 GHz ranges. These bands are ideal for urban rollout, offering a good mix of data capacity, range and in-building penetration. But in some markets — particularly the U.S. — availability of this spectrum is scarce, meaning operators are using higher mmWave bands. Markets using mmWave bands will struggle to offer wide coverage for 5G. Unless both mid-band spectrum and mmWave spectrum is available the 5G experience will be incomplete.
Mobile Internet bundles will get cheaper
Telecom firms in Uganda are concerned about the cost of delivery of mobile data. Its a fact that the cost of delivering mobile data in Uganda is by far higher than the price that consumers are paying today. We appreciate the fact that telecom companies must be appreciated for different affordable bundles and products and services that they are trying to offer. This year alone we have seen several telecom companies come up with new mobile bundles including; unlimited bundles and weekend bundles all at reduced rates.
